Global markets rebounded strongly this week, fuelled by rising expectations of a December U.S. rate cut. Major indices posted broad gains, with tech-heavy markets leading the charge. Bond yields softened globally as investor confidence improved, while Japan stood out with rising yields driven by fiscal concerns.

Locally, the Nairobi Securities Exchange cooled, with all major indices declining as investors locked in profits ahead of the holiday season. Turnover dipped, though foreign participation rose notably. E.A. Portland Cement dominated headlines after a major share acquisition deal drove a sharp rally. Banking stocks faced pressure following weaker earnings from Standard Chartered.

On the fixed-income side, T-bill demand remained strong, particularly on the 364-day paper, while secondary bond activity surged. Inflation eased to 4.5%, supported by lower maize flour prices, though weak short rains signal possible upward pressure in early 2026.

Executive Summary

Global Markets:
• Global equities recovered, posting a median gain of 3.2% as markets priced in an 80% probability of a U.S. Fed rate cut in December.
• U.S. indices rallied, with the Nasdaq up 4.9%.
• Bond yields mostly eased, except Japan, where yields rose amid debt-linked concerns.

Kenyan Equities:
• The NSE retreated across the board: NASI fell 3.6%, NSE-10 dropped 4.2%, and NSE-25 slipped 3.9%.
• Market turnover declined 17.2% to KES 3.17 billion.
• Foreign participation increased to 38.2%, though net flows remained negative.
• Top gainer: Uchumi (+45.9%).
• Biggest mover: E.A. Portland Cement (+19.8%) after a major share purchase deal signalling potential future control shifts.
• Banking sector lagged the most, weighed down by weak earnings and profit-taking.

Fixed Income:
• T-bills saw strong demand, with a 99.97% acceptance rate on the 91-day paper.
• Spot rates remained mostly stable with minor declines.
• Secondary bond turnover surged 76%, driven by IFB1/2022/019 activity.
• Eurobond yields trended lower on global rate-cut expectations.

Macroeconomic Update:
• Inflation eased slightly to 4.5%, driven by lower maize flour prices.
• Core inflation declined to 2.3%, reflecting subdued consumer demand.
• Weak short rains may push food prices higher in early 2026.

On the Radar:
• Markets await the U.S. Fed Chair’s speech and inflation data.
• Locally, investors are preparing for the upcoming SDB1/0211/030 and FXD1/2021/025 bond auctions.

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Market Rockers Report 

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The Kenyan equities market posted a mixed but active trading session, with the Nairobi All Share Index (NASI) inching up 0.1% to close at 187.34. Market activity strengthened significantly, with equity turnover rising by 40.5% to KES 849.03 million, driven mainly by heavy trading in Safaricom, which accounted for 35.8% of the day’s activity.

Despite the increased turnover, foreign investors remained net sellers, registering net outflows of KES 109.84 million, a substantial jump from the previous session.

Top Movers

• Top Gainer: Uchumi Supermarkets (+10.0%)

• Top Loser: ABSA Kenya (–6.4%)

The banking sector showed resilience with notable gains in Co-operative Bank (+9.5%), even as major lenders like KCB and Equity recorded slight declines.
In the manufacturing and allied sector, East African Breweries dipped by 2.1%, while Crown Paints continued its strong upward trend.

Bonds & Fixed Income

Bond turnover declined by 25.0% to KES 11.65 billion, with IFB1/2022/19Yr emerging as the most traded paper. Short-term treasury bill rates remained relatively stable.

Global Markets

U.S. markets were mixed as investors rotated out of tech stocks ahead of expected government-shutdown resolution updates.
Oil prices weakened significantly, with WTI Crude down 4.2%, driven by oversupply concerns.

Currencies

The Kenyan Shilling remained broadly stable against major global currencies, with mild movements across the board.

For more insights 13th November 2025- Market Rockers Report

The Government of Kenya, through the Central Bank, is re-opening two fixed-income bonds FXD1/2012/020 and FXD1/2022/015 targeting KES 40 billion for budgetary support in FY 2025/26.

Bond Details
FXD1/2012/020: 7.0 years to maturity, coupon rate 12.000%, recommended bid range 12.37% – 12.57%
FXD1/2022/015: 11.4 years to maturity, coupon rate 13.942%, recommended bid range 13.13% – 13.33%
Auction Period: 23rd October – 5th November 2025
Settlement Date: 10th November 2025

Market Context
November’s total government obligations stand at approximately KES 212.5 billion, up from KES 165.4 billion in October, reflecting heavier refinancing pressure. However, with the recent USD 872 million (KES 112.6 billion) Eurobond inflow following a partial buyback of the 2028 note the government’s liquidity position has improved significantly.


Fiscal Performance
Government revenue rose by 32.8% year-on-year in September to KES 1.03 trillion, the highest in five years. Tax revenue increased by 5.3%, while domestic borrowing surged by 77.6%, reflecting the government’s proactive debt management approach. Despite achieving 93.1% of prorated targets, the exchequer maintains a solid fiscal buffer, which may limit the acceptance of overly aggressive bids in the short term.

T-Bill Market Trends
Investor participation eased in October, with the average subscription rate declining to 97.6% from 118.9% in September. The 91-day T-Bill yield fell below 8% following a 25bps policy rate cut that reduced the Central Bank Rate to 9.25%. The market continues to show a shift towards medium- and long-term papers as investors seek higher returns.

Liquidity and Yield Curve
Interbank activity dropped by 9.46% month-on-month, with the average interbank rate easing to 9.32%, reflecting abundant liquidity in the market. Yields declined across most segments of the curve in October, though slight upward pressure emerged in the medium to long end as investors positioned for better returns.

Real Rates and Outlook
Real interest rates fell below 5.0%, compared to 9.3% a year ago, largely due to inflation and policy easing. Although this may temper investor appetite, the government’s strengthened liquidity position is expected to support stability in upcoming auctions.

Rock Advisors’ Market Outlook
The government’s stronger liquidity position and steady revenue inflows are likely to keep yields stable in the near term.
Investors are advised to remain within recommended bid bands to optimize returns and minimize pricing risk.

Medium to long-term yields could experience mild upward movement as investors reposition for value amid ongoing fiscal adjustments.

Rock Advisors’ Recommendation:
FXD1/2012/020: Bid within 12.37% – 12.57%
FXD1/2022/015: Bid within 13.13% – 13.33%

Rock Advisors_Primary Auction Note – November 2025

This week’s Weekly Rock Pulse unpacks key movements across global and local markets.

Global markets started the week on a high as investors anticipated another U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut. Although the Fed delivered the cut, Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious tone cooled expectations for further easing. However, optimism returned following an easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China fueling strong rallies in the U.S. and Asian markets, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 hitting a record high.

Back home, the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) sustained its bullish momentum, with the Nairobi All Share Index (NASI) climbing 4.7% to close at 188.29 points. Equity Group Holdings led market excitement, posting an impressive 11.3% gain after strong Q3 results showing a 32.2% jump in net earnings. TotalEnergies Marketing Kenya also topped gainers, surging 26.6%.

The fixed income market saw mixed performance, with Treasury bill yields fluctuating slightly and secondary bond turnover dipping by 30%. On the macro front, Kenya’s inflation remained steady at 4.6%, supported by stable food and fuel prices.

Looking ahead, investor attention turns to ongoing Q3 banking results and upcoming dividend announcements from key counters such as KenGen, KPLC, and Carbacid. Market watchers remain cautiously optimistic as earnings season continues to shape investor sentiment.

Weekly Rock Pulse 31st October 2026