Global markets turned cautious this week as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupted oil supply routes and triggered a sharp surge in crude prices. The resulting energy shock reignited inflation concerns and pushed global bond yields higher, prompting investors to reassess expectations for interest rate cuts. Major global equity indices ended the week lower amid rising uncertainty.

In contrast, the Nairobi Securities Exchange posted a positive week, supported by improved trading activity and strong domestic investor participation. The Nairobi All Share Index (NASI) rose 1.4%, while market capitalization expanded 6.5% to KES 3.5 trillion. Equity turnover increased 15.2% week-on-week, reflecting stronger liquidity and positioning around key corporate developments.

Market sentiment was further supported by the successful listing of Kenya Pipeline Company, whose IPO raised KES 106.3 billion and was oversubscribed by 105.7%, marking one of the most significant capital market transactions in recent years. Meanwhile, Nation Media Group surged 22.3% following the acquisition of a controlling stake by Tanzanian investor Rostam Azizi, signaling renewed optimism around the company’s strategic direction.

In fixed income markets, demand for Treasury bills remained robust, reflecting strong liquidity conditions, while global bond markets continued to adjust to inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices.

On the macroeconomic front, fuel prices remained unchanged for the March–April review period, even as landed fuel costs rose. However, sustained global energy volatility suggests upward pressure on domestic pump prices may emerge in the coming months.

Download the full report for detailed market insights.

Kenya’s fixed income market is entering the March bond auction against a backdrop of strong liquidity, easing repayment pressure, and a shifting yield environment.

The Government of Kenya is reopening FXD1/2019/020 and FXD1/2021/025, targeting KES 60Bn to support the FY2025/26 budget.

While the auction comes amid continued reliance on domestic borrowing, several market dynamics are shaping investor positioning:

1. Lower immediate repayment pressure — March government obligations decline to KES 168.36Bn from KES 222.85Bn in February
2. Strong system liquidity — reflected in sharply higher Treasury bill subscription levels.
3. Monetary easing and demand for government securities — continuing to compress yields across the curve.

At the same time, the recent Eurobond issuance provides a temporary fiscal buffer, which could moderate investor aggressiveness in the near term even as domestic borrowing needs remain elevated.

Against this backdrop, Rock Advisors recommends the following bidding ranges:

1.  FXD1/2019/020: 13.00% – 13.20
2. FXD1/2021/025: 13.45% – 13.65%

The full report explores the fiscal position, liquidity conditions, yield curve dynamics, and investor behavior shaping Kenya’s bond market ahead of the auction.

Download the full report

Global markets retreated during the week as escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran pushed Brent crude prices above $80 per barrel, intensifying concerns around energy-driven inflation and delaying expectations of interest rate cuts. The risk-off sentiment weighed on major global indices, while investors rotated toward defensive sectors and safe-haven assets.

At the Nairobi Securities Exchange, the market mirrored the cautious global backdrop, with the Nairobi All Share Index (NASI) declining 3.5% week-on-week to close at 208.41 points. Trading activity moderated to KES 5.49 billion, reflecting softer market participation, although domestic investors remained the primary drivers of activity.

On the equities front, Africa Mega Group led weekly gains, advancing 10.7% following positive developments surrounding its digital agricultural commodities platform. In contrast, Uchumi Supermarkets recorded the sharpest decline, falling 38.6% amid continued concerns around fundamentals and thin trading volumes.

In fixed income markets, demand for government securities remained strong, with Treasury bill auctions significantly oversubscribed, signaling ample market liquidity and sustained investor appetite for short-term instruments. Meanwhile, Kenya’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) moderated to 50.4 in February, indicating slower but still marginal expansion in private sector activity.

Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor upcoming bank earnings releases, inflation data, and fuel price adjustments, which are expected to provide further signals on the direction of domestic markets and broader economic activity.

Download the full Weekly Rock Pulse report

Global markets in February continued to adjust to evolving interest rate expectations, sector rotation, and geopolitical developments. While U.S. equities showed mixed performance as investors rotated away from mega-cap technology stocks, European markets advanced on stronger corporate earnings and improved economic activity. Emerging markets remained resilient despite external volatility, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions and investor flows.

Across Sub-Saharan Africa, equity markets broadly strengthened, driven by currency reforms, improving liquidity, and sector-specific rallies. Ghana, Tanzania, and Nigeria recorded some of the strongest gains, while Kenya’s market continued to attract institutional participation despite intermittent profit-taking in large-cap stocks.

Domestically, the Nairobi Securities Exchange extended its positive momentum, with the NSE All Share Index rising 10.6% month-on-month. Market activity also strengthened significantly, with equity turnover increasing to KES 24.29 billion, reflecting stronger retail and institutional participation.

Sector performance was largely driven by banking stocks ahead of full-year earnings announcements, alongside notable corporate results from companies across the manufacturing, telecoms, and consumer sectors. In the fixed income market, declining yields and strong bond auction demand reflected continued investor repositioning within a lower interest rate environment.

Rockview Monthly provides detailed analysis of global and regional markets, sector developments, and investment implications shaping the Kenyan capital markets landscape.

Download the full March 2026 report here

Weekly Rock Pulse | Market Update

Week Ending 27 February 2026

Global Markets

Global equities closed lower during the week as stronger U.S. inflation data reduced expectations of near-term rate cuts, while geopolitical tensions supported oil prices and increased investor caution. Technology stocks underperformed as markets reassessed the sustainability and timing of AI-driven investment returns, while bond yields declined modestly amid increased demand for safer assets.

Key developments:

• Persistent inflation tempered expectations of policy easing.
• AI-linked equities saw valuation reassessment.
• Defensive positioning increased across global markets.

Kenya Equities

The Nairobi Securities Exchange recorded a positive week, with the Nairobi All Share Index rising 3.0%, supported by improved turnover and strong domestic investor participation. Activity reflected early positioning ahead of earnings announcements.

Market drivers:

• Increased domestic investor participation.
• Accumulation in banking counters ahead of results.
• Manufacturing stocks supported by earnings recovery.

Market Movers

Uchumi Supermarket emerged as the top mover of the week, gaining 59.2%, driven primarily by speculative positioning following renewed profitability expectations and ongoing turnaround sentiment.

Broader market signals:

• Gains concentrated in earnings-supported counters.
• Dividend positioning influenced bank stock demand.
• Declines linked to earnings pressure and weaker consumer demand.
• Investor focus increasingly shifting toward earnings quality.

Fixed Income

Treasury bill auctions remained oversubscribed, indicating sustained liquidity following recent monetary easing, while Eurobond yields declined as refinancing risks improved.

Fixed income highlights:

• Strong demand for government securities.
• Yields eased across most tenors.
• Secondary bond market activity increased.

Macroeconomic Update

Headline inflation eased slightly to 4.3% year-on-year, remaining within the Central Bank of Kenya’s target range.

Inflation dynamics:

• Lower transport and housing costs supported disinflation.
• Food prices remained the primary pressure point.
• Near-term inflation outlook remains stable.

Market Focus

Investors continue to monitor:

• Corporate earnings releases
• Inflation trajectory
• Liquidity conditions
• Global oil price development

Download the full Weekly Rock Pulse report