Global markets turned cautious this week as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupted oil supply routes and triggered a sharp surge in crude prices. The resulting energy shock reignited inflation concerns and pushed global bond yields higher, prompting investors to reassess expectations for interest rate cuts. Major global equity indices ended the week lower amid rising uncertainty.

In contrast, the Nairobi Securities Exchange posted a positive week, supported by improved trading activity and strong domestic investor participation. The Nairobi All Share Index (NASI) rose 1.4%, while market capitalization expanded 6.5% to KES 3.5 trillion. Equity turnover increased 15.2% week-on-week, reflecting stronger liquidity and positioning around key corporate developments.

Market sentiment was further supported by the successful listing of Kenya Pipeline Company, whose IPO raised KES 106.3 billion and was oversubscribed by 105.7%, marking one of the most significant capital market transactions in recent years. Meanwhile, Nation Media Group surged 22.3% following the acquisition of a controlling stake by Tanzanian investor Rostam Azizi, signaling renewed optimism around the company’s strategic direction.

In fixed income markets, demand for Treasury bills remained robust, reflecting strong liquidity conditions, while global bond markets continued to adjust to inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices.

On the macroeconomic front, fuel prices remained unchanged for the March–April review period, even as landed fuel costs rose. However, sustained global energy volatility suggests upward pressure on domestic pump prices may emerge in the coming months.

Download the full report for detailed market insights.

Global markets retreated during the week as escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran pushed Brent crude prices above $80 per barrel, intensifying concerns around energy-driven inflation and delaying expectations of interest rate cuts. The risk-off sentiment weighed on major global indices, while investors rotated toward defensive sectors and safe-haven assets.

At the Nairobi Securities Exchange, the market mirrored the cautious global backdrop, with the Nairobi All Share Index (NASI) declining 3.5% week-on-week to close at 208.41 points. Trading activity moderated to KES 5.49 billion, reflecting softer market participation, although domestic investors remained the primary drivers of activity.

On the equities front, Africa Mega Group led weekly gains, advancing 10.7% following positive developments surrounding its digital agricultural commodities platform. In contrast, Uchumi Supermarkets recorded the sharpest decline, falling 38.6% amid continued concerns around fundamentals and thin trading volumes.

In fixed income markets, demand for government securities remained strong, with Treasury bill auctions significantly oversubscribed, signaling ample market liquidity and sustained investor appetite for short-term instruments. Meanwhile, Kenya’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) moderated to 50.4 in February, indicating slower but still marginal expansion in private sector activity.

Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor upcoming bank earnings releases, inflation data, and fuel price adjustments, which are expected to provide further signals on the direction of domestic markets and broader economic activity.

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Weekly Rock Pulse | Market Update

Week Ending 27 February 2026

Global Markets

Global equities closed lower during the week as stronger U.S. inflation data reduced expectations of near-term rate cuts, while geopolitical tensions supported oil prices and increased investor caution. Technology stocks underperformed as markets reassessed the sustainability and timing of AI-driven investment returns, while bond yields declined modestly amid increased demand for safer assets.

Key developments:

• Persistent inflation tempered expectations of policy easing.
• AI-linked equities saw valuation reassessment.
• Defensive positioning increased across global markets.

Kenya Equities

The Nairobi Securities Exchange recorded a positive week, with the Nairobi All Share Index rising 3.0%, supported by improved turnover and strong domestic investor participation. Activity reflected early positioning ahead of earnings announcements.

Market drivers:

• Increased domestic investor participation.
• Accumulation in banking counters ahead of results.
• Manufacturing stocks supported by earnings recovery.

Market Movers

Uchumi Supermarket emerged as the top mover of the week, gaining 59.2%, driven primarily by speculative positioning following renewed profitability expectations and ongoing turnaround sentiment.

Broader market signals:

• Gains concentrated in earnings-supported counters.
• Dividend positioning influenced bank stock demand.
• Declines linked to earnings pressure and weaker consumer demand.
• Investor focus increasingly shifting toward earnings quality.

Fixed Income

Treasury bill auctions remained oversubscribed, indicating sustained liquidity following recent monetary easing, while Eurobond yields declined as refinancing risks improved.

Fixed income highlights:

• Strong demand for government securities.
• Yields eased across most tenors.
• Secondary bond market activity increased.

Macroeconomic Update

Headline inflation eased slightly to 4.3% year-on-year, remaining within the Central Bank of Kenya’s target range.

Inflation dynamics:

• Lower transport and housing costs supported disinflation.
• Food prices remained the primary pressure point.
• Near-term inflation outlook remains stable.

Market Focus

Investors continue to monitor:

• Corporate earnings releases
• Inflation trajectory
• Liquidity conditions
• Global oil price development

Download the full Weekly Rock Pulse report

 Global Markets Rebound Amid Policy Clarity

Global equity markets staged a strong recovery this week, rebounding from prior volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and AI disruption concerns.

• U.S. Markets:

  • Nasdaq Composite: +1.5%

  • S&P 500: +1.0%

  • Dow Jones: +0.3%
    Gains were supported by improved sentiment following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on global tariffs and renewed confidence in economic resilience.

• Europe: STOXX Europe 600 gained over 2%, with the FTSE 100 and DAX closing higher on strong earnings and industrial momentum.

• Asia: Mixed performance, with Japan’s Nikkei easing slightly while Chinese markets recorded thin trading during Lunar New Year holidays.

• Global Fixed Income:
  U.S. yields edged higher (10-year at ~4.09%) amid shifting rate expectations, while European and Japanese yields softened modestly.

 Kenya Equity Market Overview

The Nairobi Securities Exchange experienced a sharp correction, marking its first full-week decline since March 2025.

 Market Performance

• NASI: 209.88 (-3.1% W/W)

• Market Cap: KES 3.31 Trillion (-3.1%)

• Equity Turnover: KES 5.81 Billion (-21.0%)

• Net Foreign Outflows: KES 855.40 Million

Investor wealth declined by approximately KES 107.47 Billion, reflecting profit-taking after extended gains and shifting liquidity toward bonds following the CBK rate cut.

 Sector & Stock Movers

 Top Gainers

• Uchumi Supermarkets (+37.3%)

• Shri Krishana Overseas (+32.9%)

• Eaagads Ltd (+19.0%)

• CIC Insurance Group (+12.3%)

• Flame Tree Group (+12.2%)

 Top Decliners

• Eveready East Africa (-19.2%)

• Sasini Plc (-12.4%)

• Nation Media Group (-6.7%)

• Express Kenya (-6.5%)

• Kenya Airways (-5.8%)

Insurance stocks showed relative resilience, while telecommunications and select large caps saw notable profit-taking.

 Weekly Top Movers by Turnover

Stanbic Holdings led trading activity with KES 1.35 Billion in turnover and strong foreign participation (85.9%), closing up 5.6%.

Major banking counters, Safaricom, and East African Breweries also featured prominently in weekly activity.

 Fixed Income Market Update

 Treasury Bills

Investor appetite remained strong:

• 91-Day: 7.59% (▼ 1.95bps)

• 182-Day: 7.75% (▼ 2.01bps)

• 364-Day: 8.90% (▼ 7.45bps)

Bond turnover in the secondary market surged 58.0% to KES 113.4 Billion, reflecting heightened demand amid expectations of further monetary easing.

 Eurobond Market

Eurobond yields edged up slightly (≈4bps) following recent rallies supported by Moody’s upgrade and improved macro sentiment.

 Macroeconomic Spotlight

Kenya’s $500M Eurobond Buyback & $2.25B New Issuance

In a proactive debt management move:

• Kenya launched a $500M Eurobond buyback targeting 2028 and 2032 maturities.

• Issued $2.25B dual-tranche Eurobond (2034 & 2039 amortizing notes).

• The issuance was oversubscribed, signaling renewed investor confidence.

• The move smooths Kenya’s external debt maturity profile and reduces refinancing risk.

This aligns with broader African sovereign refinancing trends amid improving global market conditions.

 Outlook

Market direction will hinge on:

• Upcoming full-year earnings announcements

• Dividend declarations

• Bond yield movements

• Foreign investor flows

• Liquidity conditions post-rate cut

While equities corrected sharply this week, strong bond demand and improved external financing conditions suggest underlying macro stabilization.

Read more: Weekly Rock Pulse – 20th February 2026

Market Overview

The Nairobi Securities Exchange recorded another decline in benchmark indices on 17th February 2026. However, trading activity surged significantly, and foreign outflows reduced sharply  suggesting a potential shift in investor positioning.

 Performance Snapshot

• NASI: 215.05 (-0.4%)

• Equity Turnover: KES 2.07 Billion (+54.6%)

• Market Capitalization: KES 3,393.74 Billion (-0.4%)

• Net Foreign Outflows: KES 31.99 Million

• Banking Sector Index: +0.6%

Despite the index decline, the sharp rise in turnover indicates renewed trading interest, particularly in large-cap counters.

 Top Gainers

• Eaagads Plc (+9.6%)

• Crown Paints (+9.3%)

• Unga Group (+9.1%)

• Uchumi Supermarkets (+7.4%)

• Britam Holdings (+7.0%)

Top Losers

• Longhorn Publishers (-6.3%)

• Car & General (-3.5%)

• Express Kenya (-2.6%)

• Safaricom (-2.1%)

Trading Activity & Sector Insights

• Stanbic Holdings dominated trading, contributing 53.7% of total turnover (KES 1.11 Billion) and closing 4.5% higher at KES 256.25.

• Foreign investor participation increased to 63.5%, while local participation declined to 36.5%.

• The banking sector showed resilience, closing in positive territory.

Market Insight

Although indices remain under pressure, improved liquidity and a significant reduction in foreign outflows suggest emerging stabilization. Increased foreign participation and strong performance in select banking counters may provide directional support in the near term.

Read more : 17th February 2026- Market Rockers Report